MICHELE GERACI

When analysts’ predictions become attributed to political leaders, public debate risks confusing expectations with declared objectives. The Kyiv narrative illustrates this problem in geopolitical analysis.

China’s development strategy and the West’s economic trajectory raise fundamental questions about industrial competitiveness, state intervention and the future distribution of global economic power.

Sanctions require political decisions by member states. Italy’s government and its coalition partners therefore share responsibility for the economic consequences and strategic choices involved.

During my speaking tour in China, I examine the EU’s declining geopolitical influence and the gap between its public declarations and its capacity to shape international outcomes.

European policy is shaped not only in Brussels but also by national governments. Italy’s position in the Council, particularly on sanctions, deserves closer scrutiny than political rhetoric suggests.

My forecast of Lula’s victory challenged prevailing expectations. The result raises questions about electoral forecasting, political narratives and the assumptions underlying conventional analysis.